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Every Signal report · 2026-10-28

Kalshi's perps referral program: who loses, and who gets paid?

Short answer

Partly. Kalshi's perps referral program pays promoters a share of their referrals' trading fees weekly, and fees (0.12% per side at the base tier) are charged on the full leveraged position whether the trader wins or loses. But most users were already losing before perps launched on June 3, 2026: Kalshi itself cited 2.9 losing users per winner in April 2026. Claims that Kalshi profits from putting customers in debt are unproven.

Key facts

verifiedKalshi filed a Perpetuals Referral Program with the CFTC on July 24, 2026 that pays referrers a share of referred users' net trading fees.
verifiedKalshi's base-tier perps taker fee is 0.12% per side, charged on notional value.
estimateKalshi's spokesperson said there were 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one in April 2026.
estimateThe Roosevelt Institute estimates market takers lost $583.5M on Kalshi from July 2021 to May 15, 2026; Kalshi disputes the method.
estimate51% of about 150 surveyed prediction-market users told BadCredit.org they had borrowed to fund bets.

Every figure is tagged: verified seen directly on a primary source · estimate press or third-party · inferred our reasoning · rumour unverified claim. Public sources only.

Bottom line

The incentive is real. Kalshi's perpetual futures referral program pays referrers a share of their referrals' trading fees, weekly, under a filing with the CFTC (the US futures regulator) dated July 24, 2026 verified. Fees are charged on the full leveraged position, 0.12% per side at the base tier, so a $10,000 position opened and closed pays $24 in fees whether the trader wins or loses verified.

But perps didn't start the losses. Kalshi's own spokesperson said there were 2.9 losing users for every winning one in April 2026, and the Roosevelt Institute estimates retail-style "takers" lost $583.5M from launch to May 15, 2026 (Kalshi disputes the method) estimate. Both predate the first perps contract, which went live June 3, 2026 estimate.

The debt trap is unproven. In a BadCredit.org survey, 51% of prediction-market users said they had used credit cards or loans to fund bets, but that's about 150 self-reported answers across all platforms estimate. Kalshi publishes no figures on negative balances or customer debt, and none of the public filings show debt as a profit source inferred.

2.9 : 1losing to winning users, April 2026, per Kalshi's spokesperson estimate

$583.5Mestimated taker losses, July 2021 to May 15, 2026 (Roosevelt Institute; Kalshi disputes) estimate

0.12%perps taker fee per side at the base volume tier, charged on notional verified

$24fees to open and close an unchanged $10,000 position, win or lose inferred

51%of ~150 surveyed prediction-market users said they borrowed to bet estimate

June 3, 2026first Kalshi perpetual futures contract (BTC) went live estimate

1. Timeline

Date	Event	Tag
Feb 2026	Kalshi removes X affiliate badges after X tightens rules on gambling-related affiliate promotion	estimate
April 2026	Kalshi: 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one (quoted by the WSJ in May)	estimate
May 15, 2026	End of the Roosevelt Institute's trade dataset (Dune snapshot)	verified
June 3–10, 2026	BTC, ETH and XRP perpetual futures go live, initially with zero fees	estimate
~June 23, 2026	Kalshi says perps fees take effect that week	estimate
June 27, 2026	Slate reports paid, barely labeled prediction-market promotion flooding social feeds; says the BBB is referring Kalshi to state attorneys general	estimate
July 7, 2026	Roosevelt Institute publishes the $583.5M estimate	verified
July 24, 2026	Kalshi files its Perpetuals Referral Program with the CFTC	verified
Sep–Oct 2026	Gold, silver and a US 500 index perp added; fee filings extend to new contracts	estimate

2. How the referral money works

🔒 Unlock this section8 data points

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Ozxi-yuvj xjwus pfv: 83 vyfji agfrpg (5.40%) xqr faie, ix mbkwsqby eksuq, oyursu kkyu rq 6.1 qlb yx dab wskewea pvukslo verified.
Q krcrvh tbcnm ydr ygenot b $20,218 jcafbjze: 2 × 2.87% × $07,957 = $05 ja ykah inferred.
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3. Who loses

🔒 Unlock this section12 data points

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Txoduijbq Ugrnmxfuw: $409.6Q iybd dm qklvjk iarlak atud Xhdc 0464 ew Fib 26, 9426, yclylu 319E+ dnwrrb gwi $92Y+ jb aambom; $522.5K ge xt dd qtfbpj verified. Bwephl jiuk tgi yinba yebwego plhzmj "bbxnw" pc "hfpysc ufsq" dyu jwot vewgrcxxxnojt qyreeoja fvhdt 54% cy bktbxy estimate.
Lcdiwl zneocidisi leipygh: typ YBJ sbbyh 5.2% kc Ynvzyrioda uidbfekl eywi 69% sb ytfojeb estimate.

4. Leverage and negative balances

🔒 Unlock this section2 data points

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5. Debt: what is and isn't known

🔒 Unlock this section5 data points

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Hy dvkibj tolbhz wvwph bkd nsshks aa Lkyijl npdlixac rfgx ngq axtwr, wf nnr cexsnebqpks gxmptxn inferred.

6. Marketing and disclosure

🔒 Unlock this section4 data points

7. What would settle it

🔒 Unlock this section1 data points

8. Sources

🔒 Unlock this section1 data points

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Questions

Do most Kalshi users lose money?

Kalshi's spokesperson said there were 2.9 losing users for every winning one in April 2026, a one-month snapshot. The Roosevelt Institute estimates takers lost $583.5M from 2021 to May 2026; Kalshi disputes how that study classifies users.

How does the Kalshi perps referral program pay?

Referrers receive a share of the trading fees their referred users pay on perpetual futures, paid weekly; referred users get a temporary fee rebate. The exact percentage varies by campaign.

Can you lose more than you deposit on Kalshi perps?

Positions are liquidated at maintenance margin to keep balances from going negative, but Kalshi notes a fast price gap can still close a position at a worse price, including into a negative balance. Event contracts cannot go negative.