Every Signalby mjonesone

Every Signal › Library › Fintech and prediction markets

Every Signal report ·

Kalshi vs Polymarket: who is winning prediction markets, and how does each buy users?

Short answer

Kalshi is winning the US money; Polymarket wins global attention. Kalshi did roughly 70-80% of combined trading volume in recent months and earned about 1.15% of volume in 2025 ($263.5M on $22.9B), while Polymarket has more web visits (about 24M vs 19M over three months) but only began charging fees in 2026. Kalshi runs about 1,100 live Meta ads against Polymarket's roughly 100, all of them under 8 days old.

Key facts

Sources: Meta Ad Library, Google Ads Transparency Center, logged-out walks of both sites (no accounts created, no payments, no wallet connected), both companies' public APIs and fee schedules, a full tech-stack scan of each site, Similarweb, press, filings and reviews.

Every figure is tagged: verified seen directly or primary source estimate third-party tool or press, can be well off inferred our own reasoning rumour single weak source, unconfirmed

Verdict

Kalshi is winning the US money; Polymarket wins the world's attention. Kalshi did roughly 70–80% of combined trading volume in recent months estimate, earns a much higher take (about 1.15% of volume in 2025 estimate), and is the far bigger advertiser. Polymarket has more web visits (estimate about 24M vs 19M over three months) from a global, news-driven audience, but most of that traffic can't trade it in the US, and it only started charging fees in 2026.

The two growth engines are opposite. Kalshi buys users everywhere a sports bettor might be: ~1,100 live Meta ads, Google, connected TV, podcasts, Spotify, sports and crypto ad networks verified. Polymarket grows on news virality and creators (its odds are quoted by media; Dow Jones carries them estimate), and only began a real paid push a week ago: ~100 Meta ads, all sports, all <8 days old, offering $25 with code FREE25 verified.

Both are now sportsbooks in all but name. Sports are ~85% of Kalshi's volume estimate and the biggest category on Polymarket estimate; both are fighting state gaming regulators in court, and both have poor public reviews (Trustpilot Kalshi 2.7, Polymarket 1.3 verified).

~70–80%Kalshi's share of combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume in mid-to-late 2026 estimate
$263.5MKalshi fee revenue in 2025, about 1.15% of $22.9B volume estimate
$2B+Kalshi annualized revenue reported mid-June 2026 (The Information); Sacra says $3.5–4B at the World Cup peak estimate
~$1BPolymarket annualized revenue per Sacra (June 2026); our math says that looks high estimate
~1,100 vs ~100live Meta ads: Kalshi vs Polymarket verified
$22B vs $15Blast confirmed valuations: Kalshi (May 2026) vs Polymarket (Apr 2026); talks reported at $40B and $21B estimate

1. The two companies

KalshiPolymarket
RegulatorCFTC-designated exchange since 2020; sells to US users verifiedOffshore crypto market (USDC on Polygon) for the world; US exchange via QCEX, bought for $112M (Jul 2025), CFTC approval Nov 2025, US rollout from Dec 2025 verified
Funding$1B at $22B (May 2026; Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm, Coatue et al.) estimate; talks at ~$40B rumourICE: $1B + up to $1B secondary (Oct 2025) and $600M more (Mar 2026) verified; ~$400M at $15B (Apr 2026) estimate; ~$1B at $21B led by 1789 Capital rumour
DistributionRobinhood (reported >50% of Kalshi volume per Bernstein), Coinbase in all 50 states, CNN data partner estimateDow Jones odds on WSJ/Barron's/MarketWatch; NHL, UFC, MLB, LaLiga NA deals estimate
ProductsEvent contracts, Combos/parlays, crypto perps (from Jun 2026), Pro, API, Kalshi Prime FCM verifiedPredict, Combos, Perps; US app on polymarket.us verified
Legal fightsCease-and-desists or suits in NV, NJ, IL, MD, OH, MT; mixed preliminary rulings; CFTC suing states back estimateState actions incl. Nevada civil suit; Wisconsin AG suit; class-action recruiting ads; undisclosed-endorsement lawsuit estimate

2. Volume, fees and revenue

🔒 Unlock this section71 data points

3. Where their traffic comes from

🔒 Unlock this section37 data points

4. Paid ads

🔒 Unlock this section40 data points

5. Sign-up and promotions

🔒 Unlock this section28 data points

6. Trust and complaints

🔒 Unlock this section13 data points

7. Tracking and tools: full breakdown

🔒 Unlock this section635 data points

8. What would change the picture

🔒 Unlock this section4 data points

Unlock the full report

7 locked sections · 828 data points

Everything above in grey is the real report with the data hidden. Unlock it to read every figure, source, screenshot and table.

Unlock this report · $149Every report · $499/mo

New here? Create a free account and read one full report free. Fund and Firm plans include the whole library.

Questions

Who has more trading volume, Kalshi or Polymarket?

Kalshi, by a wide margin. The report estimates it did roughly 70-80% of combined volume in mid-to-late 2026, with a June 2026 split of about 70% Kalshi, 23% Polymarket global and 7% Polymarket US.

How does Kalshi get users?

Mostly paid media: about 1,100 live Meta ads, Google ads, connected TV, podcasts, Spotify and sports and crypto ad networks, landing on its sign-up page. Search traffic is 76.6% organic and 23.4% paid.

How do Kalshi and Polymarket charge fees?

Kalshi charges takers 0.07 x contracts x P x (1-P) on event contracts. Polymarket charges takers by category (crypto 0.07, sports 0.05, politics 0.04, geopolitics 0), makers pay nothing, and fees only began in 2026.

More from the library

OpenRouter: can anyone still compete with the LLM router Stripe just bought?Kalshi's perps referral program: who loses, and who gets paid?AI agent cockpits in 2026: is there room for another one?Why AI coding tool startups shut down in 2026AI employee memory and handover tools in 2026Shortical: does the micro-drama app really clear $6M a month?Astrology apps: how Co-Star, The Pattern, Mirror and CHANI grewHigh Purity Labs: how does a five-month-old research peptide store grow with no ads?Rotten: how does a better-for-you candy brand actually grow?Comfrt: how did a bootstrapped hoodie brand build a 600,000-affiliate machine?American Hartford Gold: how does the gold dealer sell and earn?Face-matched photo-sharing apps: why PicSee, Facebook Moments and Flock diedSaneBox vs Superhuman: how do the two email tools price and convert?FashionPass vs Nuuly and Rent the Runway: who is winning clothing rental?